Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 8.971218 10.305373 11.742800 13.403311 15.265197 17.284962 19.638214
2025-12-21 6.602484 8.315844 10.309124 12.786216 15.767746 19.225821 23.524076
2025-12-28 5.779529 7.715249 10.077935 13.148901 17.006997 21.663251 27.674302
2026-01-04 5.085670 7.158435 9.800579 13.375224 18.039015 23.866246 31.639125
2026-01-11 4.436584 6.550121 9.350844 13.276809 18.571152 25.388007 34.740020
2026-01-18 3.895888 6.014794 8.925857 13.141967 19.001679 26.754267 37.661512
2026-01-25 3.492329 5.619089 8.639419 13.145713 19.581425 28.305566 40.857696
2026-02-01 3.180014 5.318195 8.449851 13.252094 20.283332 30.027586 44.333840
2026-02-08 2.860453 4.969327 8.152750 13.166105 20.684726 31.327109 47.255718
2026-02-15 2.575223 4.642430 7.855399 13.046203 21.010920 32.512616 50.042147
2026-02-22 2.369950 4.422438 7.700145 13.121645 21.616161 34.108264 53.462063
2026-03-01 2.248190 4.328657 7.733288 13.484816 22.665939 36.387357 57.955521
2026-03-08 2.025672 4.043126 7.438256 13.312856 22.889801 37.464398 60.747126
2026-03-15 1.754595 3.642659 6.918144 12.734256 22.432127 37.478438 61.930523
2026-03-22 1.670104 3.574610 6.956961 13.082937 23.474224 39.833583 66.765219
2026-03-29 1.573955 3.474240 6.929577 13.312864 24.326918 41.919235 71.251935
2026-04-05 1.438494 3.282848 6.722644 13.213225 24.617505 43.114107 74.371752
2026-04-12 1.311903 3.095391 6.506653 13.079520 24.836180 44.191920 77.332368
2026-04-19 1.214966 2.958440 6.373269 13.083047 25.285316 45.655079 80.955324
2026-04-26 1.138805 2.857295 6.299616 13.189058 25.914033 47.432487 85.143768
2026-05-03 1.047680 2.713608 6.130765 13.103401 26.192713 48.626905 88.402996
2026-05-10 0.961273 2.570773 5.951542 12.984006 26.399462 49.699508 91.485642
2026-05-17 0.901531 2.482575 5.876111 13.059132 26.961444 51.395807 95.666148